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us pol, speculative, negative 

Here is what I think happens Novemeber-January. I think Biden wins decisively. In fact, in think he has clearly won on election night. Nonetheless, Trump attempts to drag out the vote counts in order to have state legislatures decide the election rather than the vote. I do not know if he wins that or not. If he does, he stays president and half the country rebels. if he does not, the other half of the country rebels.

us pol, speculative, negative 

the winning side of this conflict will probably be whoever legally should be the president, because the military will mostly side with them. In the ensuing rebellion, the worst of it will be in the eastern midwest, as no side politically dominates in it, it sits on the red-blue state border, it's densely populated and it contains a lot of the nation's industrial capacity.

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us pol, speculative, negative 

there are three forms this conflict could take. One is a dedicated insurrection in the hinterlands, think Shining Path, one is a mass uprising pretty much everywhere at once, and the other is a secession crisis, though that I think only happens if Trump attempts to retain power but legally should not be the president.

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us pol, speculative, negative 

@hyenagirl64
I don't think the Democrats or leftists in the US are organized or armed for rebellion. I think the party will make legal challenges as long as they can and the people will (mostly) sit at home, especially if/when the police start machine-gunning the protesters, or otherwise escalate the violence against them.

us pol, speculative, negative 

@dragonbait1 I disagree. I think the left is less willing to employ guns, but guns have started showing up at BLM protests. There are literally as many guns as people in this country, and they aren't all in the hands of right wing militias. It isn't that hard to acquire them either.

us pol, speculative, negative 

@hyenagirl64
While I agree there are leftists and Democrats with guns, that doesn't mean they are armed for rebellion.

IIRC, about 3% of US gun owners own more then 50% of US civilian firearms. Those collectors, the machinegun rental ranges, tank "museums" & gun manufacturers are aligned conservatively.

With the marginal exception of some anarchists, Maoists & other hard leftists, gun ownership in Dem & left is typically a few personal arms in some households.

us pol, speculative, negative 

@hyenagirl64
Worse, our organizations are generally not prepared for violence, while the right has had functional militias, control of the police & cultural dominance in the military forever.

All love and respect to protesters, Antifa, Black Bloc and others fighting on those front lines, but they're the fringe that mainstream Democrats can't bring themselves to support. I don't think people who think we shouldn't punch Nazis will be willing to take up the gun.

us pol, speculative, negative 

@dragonbait1 It depends on how obvious it is that we've become a dictatorship in this scenario. i think there are a significant number of democrats who would get radicalized the moment that happened, but only if it was bleedingly obvious. The more obvious it is trump shouldn't be president, the more radicalized they will get.

I mean goodness, my mom was talking about how she hoped the military would step in to remove trump. My MOM.

us pol, speculative, negative 

@hyenagirl64
I'm holding out hope.

Also, I apologize if I was over the top. Looking back I may have been too animated and not listening enough.

us pol, speculative, negative 

@dragonbait1 it's okay. We are all upset. I've spent the last few days screaming about losing my faith in humanity. At the end of the day, I am telling myself a story about what will happen to try to feel better. I believe it, but like, I'm not a military or political analyst. I can't predict the future. But I AM certain that people in this country won't sit idly by. They already aren't.

us pol, speculative, negative 

@hyenagirl64
There I agree wholeheartedly

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